Risk-On Analytics
Shifting the edge to retail.


Articles, ideas, tutorials and updates.



Volume Tell in SPY

This post is for informational purposes only. Not trading or investing advice.

We published Data Signaling Pause for TWTR fourteen trading days ago. The stock maintained a negative bias until Friday's higher-volume breakout. Leading the move, TWTR produced statistical signs of accumulation as it pulled into and held the Bollinger middle band. Could Friday's 10-period "Z Close" score of 2.06 be the confirming buy signal for higher prices?

Let's move on and assess the broader market (AMEX: SPY 275.42 +2.31 +0.85%). Can we get a read amidst trade and rate fears, threatening volatility and bearish chart formations?

Scroll through the two images below to see the data-level technicals and analytics.

Image 1 (available in Core and Stage) shows a capitulation day on 6/25 followed by modestly rising price, volume and volatility indicators as well as improvement in momentum. The MACD is threatening a zero line cross.

Image 2 (available in Stage only) shows bullishness in the moving averages, a complacent MACD that's building momentum and the following statistical gap: Acc/Dist and OBV outperformed price and momentum metrics since the market lost steam in mid June. Will this volume tell foreshadow the market's next short-term (e.g. 1-2 weeks) move?

In the image below, let's look at SPY vs its benchmarks and next-period (Tuesday) technicals.

Custom Stage 2 Analytics - Comp tab featuring SPY

SPY, QQQ and EEM are all producing bullish technical events. Even if the 500 Index trades flat Monday, it would still show upward momentum on Tuesday.

Considering what we've learned so far, the analytical texture is bullish, but trade knowing earnings season is looming, volatility is percolating and political and rate risks persist.

In the next image, adding evidence to the above bias, we see many tickers are threatening bullish divergence (by event 20, "Bullish Histogram approaches zero").

Where's the strength specifically?

Custom Stage 2 Analytics - Notes tab with daily technical events

Toggling between the image above and image one below (Sort tab, daily data, highest to lowest Closing price Z score), the healthcare sector including AMGN, ABBV and CELG leap from the screen. Given the relative technical and statistical data, I like one stock specifically into earnings.

Images two and three above show tickers sorted by Acc/Dist Z score; this particular view is relevant given the SPY story above. See for yourself which stocks and ETFs are being accumulated or distributed.

     by Jay Beckner



Stage Analytics is built on our Core Platform.

See you in Telegram.